Economic Data & What to Watch
The morning will start with a brand new reading on initial jobless claims. Recent data from early March showed claims holding steady around 213,000, which economists viewed as a “low-hiring but low-firing” environment.
Look for whether claims break the 215,000 mark. A jump could signal that the “strain” mentioned in February’s jobs report (which saw a surprise cut of 92,000 jobs) is finally translating into higher layoffs.
The Growth Gauge
This will be followed by an all important final reading on GDP for the previous quarter. This will give the public a definitive look at just how strong the economy is. If this number comes in lower than the previous estimates it could fuel talks about a recession and may even play a big part in the Feds next decision.
We saw the Federal reserve hold rates steady last Wednesday, keeping the rate at the range of 3.5%-3.75%. This is the second consecutive rate pause of 2026 following three rate cuts at the end of 2025. “Elevated” economic uncertainty was the key decision of the rate pause, fueled by a tense and uncertain geopolitical state in the Middle East.
Barrel Breakdown
As the spring equinox arrives, American drivers are facing a familiar but unwelcome guest: surging gas prices. In just the last month, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline has jumped nearly $1, currently sitting at $3.92 and rapidly closing in on the $4.00 mark.
Oil has been the most volatile asset during the war involving Iran. This is because of what many experts are calling the” Worst global energy disruption in history”. The root of this problem is the effective closing of the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow waterway of which 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows through. This closing has also been referred to as a selective blockade, effectively halting most commercial shipping. Iran has threatened a total closure if its energy infrastructure is targeted, following weeks of attacks on vessels, creating a “selective access” scenario where only certain ships are permitted passage
The Volatility Index
While the price of gas shows visible signs of trouble, the major stock indices are having a very rough time navigating these geopolitical tensions. As of late March 2026, the S&P 500 has slipped roughly 5% since the conflict began while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is down about 4.5%. The Russell 2000, which tracks small-cap companies, officially entered a correction. (a drop of 10% from its recent peak) on March 20.
Second-Wave Success
Not every company is losing money, the war has created a sharp divide between different industries, a pattern favoring the defensive investor. Defense & Aerospace is the primary “winner” of the war. Naturally, when there is war the spending on defense increases. The U.S. is proposing a $1.01 trillion defense budget for stocks like GE Aerospace and Howmet Aerospace. Both are up 4-7% respectively.
A sector that has been falling behind is consumer discretionary. As people bear the burden of higher gas prices and an inflated economy , they are more likely to spend less on restaurants, travel, and high end clothing. This sector has suffered about a 12% loss since the beginning of the new year.
The Rebound Roadmap
The “energy tax” of March 2026 isn’t just a local problem, it’s a global test of economic resilience. Whether you’re a commuter at the pump or an investor in the S&P 500, the data released this week, will set the tone for the rest of the spring.
