After the conclusion of the Wuhan Open last Sunday, a handful of the top players on the WTA tour find themselves preparing for one of the biggest tournaments of the year: the WTA Finals.
During the first week of November in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, the WTA Finals have a tough lineup of 8 of the best players on tour. Amongst the 8 contenders, 5 are grand slam winners, and 6 made grand slam finals this year. It’s a breakout year for players Qinwen Zheng and Jasmine Paolini, as it’s their first time competing in the WTA finals, with Barbora Krejčíková making her first appearance in the singles draw since 2021 as the 8th seed. Current world No. 1 and 2nd seed Iga Świątek is looking to defend her title after lifting the trophy at last year’s WTA Finals. Other returning players include 1st seed and 2022 WTA Finals runner-up Aryna Sabalenka, 3rd seed Coco Gauff, and the 5th and 6th seeds, Elena Rybakina and Jessica Pegula.
I think this year’s WTA Finals is set up to be a great contest. Though Świątek has been ruling the rankings, holding the spot of No. 1 for all but 8 of the last 133 weeks, she’s currently facing some coaching changes, causing her to be absent for quite a few tournaments towards the end of the season. I won’t discredit Iga’s ability to succeed in this year’s finals, however, because she has pretty favorable head-to-heads against almost everyone in the draw. We know she’s capable of a lot as a 5-time Grand Slam champion and Olympic bronze medalist, and it will definitely show in this tournament. Sabalenka has had objectively the best year, winning two grand slams and two WTA 1000 tournaments, as well as making a handful of other 1000 and 500 finals. She seems to be in the best form for this tournament, coming off of her hat-trick title in Wuhan. Sabalenka has a reputation for her hard-hitting, leading both the men and the women in fastest forehand speed at the US open this year. She’s definitely one of the top contenders for this tournament, especially with her 2 hard court Grand Slams this year.
In this year’s WTA Finals draw, we also see players such as Paolini and Pegula, who have had pretty great runs this year in slams and 1000s, but they definitely need to focus and take their game to the next level to have a chance at the trophy. Paolini put up some pretty remarkable fights on her way to her two grand slam finals this year. She pulled off some great upsets and displayed amazing composure and resilience under pressure. She’s been on the tour for quite a while, but her game has grown exponentially this year. I think she might need more time to hone her skills if she wants to lift the finals trophy, as she is still warming up to the top opponents on tour. Pegula has solidified her place as a top opponent on tour, with 2 great seasons back-to-back. After her title defense in Toronto and an admirable finals run in the US Open, her chances of succeeding on hard court are high. The US Open final against Sabalenka showed some top-tier defense from Pegula, her loss partially attributed to a double fault and an unlucky net cord on match point. If she maintains the level that she’s had for this hard-court swing, I could definitely see her in the final. The other American in the draw, Gauff, will definitely have to prove herself in this tournament. She had a dream run at the US Open last year, with a 16-match win streak snapped by Świątek in the semifinals of the China Open. This year, she started off strong with a title in Auckland and a semis run in the Australian Open, and she got back in form for the end of the hard-court swing with a redemption title in China and a run to the semis in Wuhan. Gauff has also undergone coaching changes like a few others in these finals, and her forehand has noticeably improved over these past few months. Right now, her biggest fault right now is her serve. She racked up 21 double faults in her Wuhan semifinal loss to Sabalenka, though she still fought hard against the world No. 2 in the 3-set battle. If Gauff can get on top of her serve, I would consider her to be the American with a slight advantage in these finals.
It’s unsure if Elena Rybakina will withdraw from the WTA Finals, due to the injuries that have plagued her in the latter half of this year. Rybakina dominated the tour in the first half of the season, winning 3 500 titles in the first four months, as well as making the finals of Miami and Qatar. Sadly, bronchitis struck her after her semifinal loss in Wimbledon, with a split from her long time coach Stefano Vukov following the next month. Following all of this misfortune, Rybakina pulled out of the US Open with a lower back injury. What was setup to be a great season for her was cut short, but I hope she comes back with her usual composure and elegance to fight for the title in Riyadh. She is remarkably still leading the tour in aces this year with 336 across just 50 matches, ahead of Qinwen Zheng by just one ace. It might not be Rybakina’s year to lift the coveted trophy this year with the unlucky streak she’s found over the last few months, but I hope we get to see her play for a last time this season. In the instance of a withdrawal from her or any player, the top alternate is Emma Navarro, who has found herself at world number 8 since September of this year.
The 8th seed of this tournament, Krejčíková, has had a very unusual year with a surprising qualification into the WTA Finals. After losing 6 tournaments in the first round, and only winning 7 matches in the first half of 2024, Krejčíková managed to battle all the way up to the Wimbledon title. Seeded 31, the Czechian fought hard and took advantage of her crafty play style to claim her second Grand Slam singles title, the other being Roland Garros in 2021. It was an unexpected but deserved run, and it granted her a spot in the WTA Finals, as she was a 2024 Grand Slam winner inside the top 20. However, If she had lost the first round of Wimbledon, she would have only accrued 717 points across the entire 2024 season, with a string of first and second round exits during the US and Asia swing towards the end of the season. Though Krejčíková knows how to play great defense from her doubles expertise, I think she will crumble under the pressure of her higher level opponents and slower ball conditions on hard-court instead of grass. Qinwen Zheng saw a rise to stardom this year, following in the footsteps of former Chinese world No. 2, Li Na. Zheng had a dream run to the finals in the Australian Open, and even more of a dream run to the Olympic gold medal. She displayed good consistency in other tournaments throughout the year, making a handful of quarter-finals and semifinals across the season. Though powerful in serve and ball-striking, Zheng tends to get apprehensive in matches against top players. Her head-to-heads are unfavorable against most of the other contenders in this tournament, but she did pull off a surprising upset against Świątek in the Olympics after losing all 6 of their other meetings, so we could be in for a surprise from the Chinese No. 1.
After closely following the 2024 season and researching the 8 players in the draw, my prediction is for Sabalenka to win the WTA Finals this year.
Sabalenka’s overbearing power combined with piercing accuracy gives her a great advantage on the hard-courts, and she has played exceptionally well throughout the entire year, especially on this surface. She made it to the finals of this tournament last year, and I think she has the odds in her favor to redeem herself. Her only losses to the other players in the draw this year were a loss in Brisbane to Rybakina and two consecutive losses to Świątek on clay in Madrid and Italy, one of which ended in a third-set tiebreak. Sabalenka has proven herself to be an incredible fighter this year, improving upon her inconsistencies from the 2023 season. She has been almost undefeatable over the past few months, winning 20 of the last 21 matches she’s played. I think Świątek might stand a chance for the trophy if she finds her form again in this tournament, however. We know Iga and Aryna have had a close rivalry that continued into the 2024 season, and I think the match could go either way in the case that they meet in the final.
I’d like to think Coco Gauff will put up a great fight if she finds the confidence she had in her serve earlier in the year. With her newly-improved forehand and arguably the best backhand on tour, as well as top-tier athleticism, Gauff can pull off some pretty incredible tennis if she can overcome the yips on her serve. I think the other players will put up some great fights, and there will definitely be some incredible tennis from everyone involved, but the chance of one of them lifting the trophy seems unlikely to me.
No matter the winner of this year’s WTA Finals, I think we’re looking at a very exciting tournament, with the potential for some incredible matchups and thrilling tennis. These 8 players will definitely put on an exciting show for this highly-sought after title to round out the 2024 women’s tennis season.
